Obama now virtually tied with Clinton, poll shows
May be sign of whose 'messages' are sticking
By Susan PageUSA TODAY
WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama are essentially tied for the Democratic presidential nomination, according to a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll, the first time that the New York senator hasn't clearly led the field.
The Illinois senator bests Clinton by a single percentage point, 30%-29%, if the contest includes former vice president Al Gore.
Clinton bests Obama by a single point, 37%-36%, if it doesn't include Gore.
The survey of 310 Democrats and 160 independents who "lean" Democratic, taken Friday through Sunday, has a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.
National polls taken the year before an election are "clearly not a prediction of how they're going to end up," cautions political scientist Charles Franklin of the University of Wisconsin. "On the other hand, the national trends are a good indicator of whose messages are beginning to work and whose messages may be falling short."
No other major national poll has shown the Democratic race so close. An ABC News/Washington Post poll taken last Tuesday through Friday gave Clinton a 12-point lead.
Mark Penn, Clinton's chief strategist, calls the USA TODAY poll "an outlier" that is "completely out of sync" with other surveys. He says it is "seriously flawed" for including so many independents unlikely to vote in Democratic primaries.
"National polls are not all that relevant in a process that is largely sequential" through early contests in a series of particular states, says David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist.
Even so, Axelrod adds, "This poll is consistent with what we see on the ground" as increasingly huge crowds show up for Obama's appearances. He says it also undercuts the argument Clinton strategists have tried to make that "she's an (unconquerable) Juggernaut."
Among Democrats alone, Clinton leads Obama by 5 points, 34%-29%. That's a significant narrowing from the USA TODAY Poll taken in mid-May, when she led by 17 points. Among independents, Obama leads by 9 points, 31%-22%.
Meanwhile, former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani leads the Republican field at 32%, up 3 points from the poll in mid-May. Arizona Sen. John McCain was second at 19%, down 4 points.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edged up 4 points to third place, at 12%, 1 point above former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson.
Thompson formed a testing-the-waters committee last week and could formally enter the race as early as next month.
The survey of 439 Republicans and independents who "lean" Republican has a margin of error of +/-5 points.
The Republicans meet in New Hampshire at 7 ET tonight for their third televised debate, this one sponsored by CNN, WMUR-TV and the New Hampshire Union Leader.
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Monday, June 4, 2007
Republican Debate
MANCHESTER, New Hampshire (CNN) -- Ten Republicans who want to be president will take the stage Tuesday night for their first debate in New Hampshire, hoping to make an impression on the voters who will cast ballots in the nation's first primary early next year.
The debate, sponsored by CNN, the New Hampshire Union Leader and WMUR-TV, will begin at 7 p.m. ET in Sullivan Arena on the campus of Saint Anselm College. Democratic candidates mounted the same stage for their first Granite State debate on Sunday.
The Republican presidential prospect one rival calls "Mighty Mouse" won't be at Tuesday's debate, but is nonetheless causing a little tension.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson is already raising money and is said by advisers to be all but certain to formally join the race in early July.
"[It's] what we might call the 'Mighty Mouse' candidacy," former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Monday while campaigning in Concord, New Hampshire's capital city. "You know: 'Here I come to save the day.' And in the end voters are not necessarily looking for Mighty Mouse to fly in -- they are looking for somebody who stands their ground and goes the distance."
State Republican Party Chairman Fergus Cullen says Thompson is certainly welcome to the race, but he plays down the idea that GOP voters are not happy with the existing field of candidates.
"I think it is insulting to the existing candidates," he said of such talk. "In other words I think it happens every cycle. ... I bet at this time in 1979, Republicans were gathering saying, 'You know this Ronald Reagan fella has been around the track before -- I think his time has passed.' "
A delicate balance
During Sunday's debate, the Democratic presidential candidates tried to outdo each other in heaping opprobrium on President Bush and the Iraq war.
Republican candidates will face a trickier task in trying to put some light between themselves and an increasingly unpopular president without alienating their base.
"I think the biggest problem this field is having -- everybody in the field -- is deciding how much latitude you have in describing your vision of where the country will be four years from now or eight years from now if you're president," said Tom Rath, an adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. "There is a Republican president who is still quite popular in the base here."
While critical of the management of the war in Iraq, most of the GOP candidates support the recent troop increase and say the United States cannot leave Iraq until there is a more stable political and security environment.
Clearer differences exist on taxes and spending, immigration and other issues.
The recently passed Senate immigration bill, which Sen. John McCain co-sponsored and Bush supports, has sharply divided Republicans -- a divide likely to emerge on the stage in Tuesday's debate, which includes Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, whose presidential campaign is rooted in his strong opposition to immigration reform.
University of New Hampshire survey director Andrew Smith says he believes the stakes are highest for the long-shot candidates who have to worry about paying the bills as much as winning votes.
"They have to be able to demonstrate to people who are willing to give them money that they are serious candidates and they will be credible candidates at the end of this campaign," Smith said Monday.
The debate field will be rounded out by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the front-runner in most polls; Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas; Reps. Ron Paul of Texas and Duncan Hunter of California; and former governors Jim Gilmore of Virginia, and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin.
The debate, sponsored by CNN, the New Hampshire Union Leader and WMUR-TV, will begin at 7 p.m. ET in Sullivan Arena on the campus of Saint Anselm College. Democratic candidates mounted the same stage for their first Granite State debate on Sunday.
The Republican presidential prospect one rival calls "Mighty Mouse" won't be at Tuesday's debate, but is nonetheless causing a little tension.
Former Sen. Fred Thompson is already raising money and is said by advisers to be all but certain to formally join the race in early July.
"[It's] what we might call the 'Mighty Mouse' candidacy," former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Monday while campaigning in Concord, New Hampshire's capital city. "You know: 'Here I come to save the day.' And in the end voters are not necessarily looking for Mighty Mouse to fly in -- they are looking for somebody who stands their ground and goes the distance."
State Republican Party Chairman Fergus Cullen says Thompson is certainly welcome to the race, but he plays down the idea that GOP voters are not happy with the existing field of candidates.
"I think it is insulting to the existing candidates," he said of such talk. "In other words I think it happens every cycle. ... I bet at this time in 1979, Republicans were gathering saying, 'You know this Ronald Reagan fella has been around the track before -- I think his time has passed.' "
A delicate balance
During Sunday's debate, the Democratic presidential candidates tried to outdo each other in heaping opprobrium on President Bush and the Iraq war.
Republican candidates will face a trickier task in trying to put some light between themselves and an increasingly unpopular president without alienating their base.
"I think the biggest problem this field is having -- everybody in the field -- is deciding how much latitude you have in describing your vision of where the country will be four years from now or eight years from now if you're president," said Tom Rath, an adviser to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. "There is a Republican president who is still quite popular in the base here."
While critical of the management of the war in Iraq, most of the GOP candidates support the recent troop increase and say the United States cannot leave Iraq until there is a more stable political and security environment.
Clearer differences exist on taxes and spending, immigration and other issues.
The recently passed Senate immigration bill, which Sen. John McCain co-sponsored and Bush supports, has sharply divided Republicans -- a divide likely to emerge on the stage in Tuesday's debate, which includes Rep. Tom Tancredo of Colorado, whose presidential campaign is rooted in his strong opposition to immigration reform.
University of New Hampshire survey director Andrew Smith says he believes the stakes are highest for the long-shot candidates who have to worry about paying the bills as much as winning votes.
"They have to be able to demonstrate to people who are willing to give them money that they are serious candidates and they will be credible candidates at the end of this campaign," Smith said Monday.
The debate field will be rounded out by former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the front-runner in most polls; Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas; Reps. Ron Paul of Texas and Duncan Hunter of California; and former governors Jim Gilmore of Virginia, and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin.
Clinton not making headway in the Mission City
Hilary Clinton is not getting many contributions in Santa Clara.
A recent check of the Federal Elections Commission of the Clinton for President campaign shows very few contributions from Santa Clara.
A recent check of the Federal Elections Commission of the Clinton for President campaign shows very few contributions from Santa Clara.
McCain-Romney Immigration
McCain, Romney clash over immigration
By BRENDAN FARRINGTON, Associated Press Writer 22 minutes ago
CORAL GABLES, Fla. -
Republican presidential hopefuls John McCain ( and Mitt Romney clashed on Monday over the immigration bill, with McCain embracing the measure as a practical solution and Romney dismissing it as unworkable.
Speaking in politically crucial Florida, with its heavy concentration of Cuban and Haitian immigrants, McCain argued that while the bill is imperfect, it is an attempt to secure U.S. borders, help the economy and identify those who have entered the nation illegally.
The four-term Arizona senator chided rivals who are trying to score points on the issue. McCain never mentioned any names but his target was obvious — Romney.
"To want the office so badly that you would intentionally make our country's problems worse might prove you can read a poll or take a cheap shot, but it hardly demonstrates presidential leadership," McCain told members of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce.
Romney answered back.
McCain stands alone among the major candidates in supporting the bill.
By BRENDAN FARRINGTON, Associated Press Writer 22 minutes ago
CORAL GABLES, Fla. -
Republican presidential hopefuls John McCain ( and Mitt Romney clashed on Monday over the immigration bill, with McCain embracing the measure as a practical solution and Romney dismissing it as unworkable.
Speaking in politically crucial Florida, with its heavy concentration of Cuban and Haitian immigrants, McCain argued that while the bill is imperfect, it is an attempt to secure U.S. borders, help the economy and identify those who have entered the nation illegally.
The four-term Arizona senator chided rivals who are trying to score points on the issue. McCain never mentioned any names but his target was obvious — Romney.
"To want the office so badly that you would intentionally make our country's problems worse might prove you can read a poll or take a cheap shot, but it hardly demonstrates presidential leadership," McCain told members of the Greater Miami Chamber of Commerce.
Romney answered back.
McCain stands alone among the major candidates in supporting the bill.
Why I Like Bill Richardson
Bill Richardson is a person that could be an outstanding president. He has the skills, the experience, and the respect of the leaders of all the countries in the world.
Our country needs Bill Richardson, and the world would respect us even more with Richardson at the helm.
Our country needs Bill Richardson, and the world would respect us even more with Richardson at the helm.
Biden was the Surprise Winner
Joe Biden came from behind last night and showed that he was the most engaging, and most interesting of the candidates.
We encourage people to take a real look at Biden's candidacy, which will be the site of the most engaging presidential debate of the campaign.
We encourage people to take a real look at Biden's candidacy, which will be the site of the most engaging presidential debate of the campaign.
Debate-Democrats
Leadership Questions Emerge at Debate
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Questions of courage and political leadership emerged at the latest Democratic debate, as John Edwards forcefully challenged front-runners Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama over whether they had demonstrated leadership on key issues.
Two long shot hopefuls - Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich - denounced what they called the lack of leadership by congressional Democrats after voters returned them to power last November.
With a new Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Clinton far ahead of her rivals nationally, the former first lady projected an air of confidence and a mastery of the subject matter at Sunday's forum. She also insisted Democrats should focus their policy critiques on Republicans, especially President Bush.
"The differences among us are minor. The differences between us and Republicans are major, and we don't want anybody in America to be confused," she said.
She chuckled as her rivals were quizzed over what role her husband, former President Bill Clinton, would play in a Democratic administration. The consensus: He'd be a roving global ambassador.
Obama, who in the first debate in late April appeared nervous and insufficiently prepared, had a smoother delivery this time and a more detailed grasp of policy issues.
So it was left to Edwards, struggling to catch up to Clinton and Obama in most national polls, to throw the sharpest elbows, accusing them of being passive and cautious on urgent issues, like Iraq, health care and gay rights.
"The job of the president of the United States is not to legislate but to lead," he said - a point he repeated several times.
One strategist said Edwards's approach was bold but potentially dangerous.
"John Edwards clearly has a new strategy to isolate Senator Clinton and defuse Senator Obama on the war and other key issues," Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter said. "It's a smart but risky strategy to differentiate from others to maintain top tier status, but it's a fine line between aggressive and desperate."
Edwards applauded Clinton and Obama for voting last week against legislation to fund military operations in Iraq after a timeline for removing troops was stripped from the bill. But he said the votes didn't demonstrate the level of political leadership voters expect.
His rivals, Edwards said, "did not say anything about how they were going to vote ... they were among the last people to vote," Edwards said. "I think all of us have a responsibility to lead on these issues."
Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, voted in 2002 to authorize military action in Iraq and was a forceful defender of the war during his first presidential bid in 2004.
That led Obama, who as an Illinois state senator opposed the war before it started, to jab back at Edwards.
"You're about four and a half years late on leadership on this issue," Obama said.
Obama and Edwards also tangled over details of their respective health care plans, with Edwards arguing that Obama's proposal would not provide universal coverage. Obama said his plan focused primarily on bringing down costs and said that mandatory health coverage was meaningless if consumers couldn't afford to pay for it.
Clinton stood quietly between the two as they bickered, letting through an occasional bemused smile for the cameras.
Edwards had tough words for the former first lady, too, batting back her contention that the differences among the candidates were unimportant.
"There are differences between us, and I think Democratic voters deserve to know the differences between us," he said.
Clinton lobbed back at Edwards over his contention that the war on terror is little more than a "bumper sticker" slogan.
"I am a senator from New York. I have lived with the aftermath of 9/11, and I have seen firsthand the terrible damage that can be inflicted on our country by a small band of terrorists," she said.
With the so-called "top-tier" candidates - Clinton, Obama and Edwards - grabbing the most screen time during the debate, Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson did what they could to break through.
Richardson stressed his efforts to expand health insurance in his state and criticized the immigration bill moving through Congress, while Biden displayed his knowledge of global affairs as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Dodd outlined his proposal for energy independence, which he has tried to make the signature issue of his presidential bid.
---
MANCHESTER, N.H. (AP) - Questions of courage and political leadership emerged at the latest Democratic debate, as John Edwards forcefully challenged front-runners Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama over whether they had demonstrated leadership on key issues.
Two long shot hopefuls - Mike Gravel and Dennis Kucinich - denounced what they called the lack of leadership by congressional Democrats after voters returned them to power last November.
With a new Washington Post/ABC News poll showing Clinton far ahead of her rivals nationally, the former first lady projected an air of confidence and a mastery of the subject matter at Sunday's forum. She also insisted Democrats should focus their policy critiques on Republicans, especially President Bush.
"The differences among us are minor. The differences between us and Republicans are major, and we don't want anybody in America to be confused," she said.
She chuckled as her rivals were quizzed over what role her husband, former President Bill Clinton, would play in a Democratic administration. The consensus: He'd be a roving global ambassador.
Obama, who in the first debate in late April appeared nervous and insufficiently prepared, had a smoother delivery this time and a more detailed grasp of policy issues.
So it was left to Edwards, struggling to catch up to Clinton and Obama in most national polls, to throw the sharpest elbows, accusing them of being passive and cautious on urgent issues, like Iraq, health care and gay rights.
"The job of the president of the United States is not to legislate but to lead," he said - a point he repeated several times.
One strategist said Edwards's approach was bold but potentially dangerous.
"John Edwards clearly has a new strategy to isolate Senator Clinton and defuse Senator Obama on the war and other key issues," Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter said. "It's a smart but risky strategy to differentiate from others to maintain top tier status, but it's a fine line between aggressive and desperate."
Edwards applauded Clinton and Obama for voting last week against legislation to fund military operations in Iraq after a timeline for removing troops was stripped from the bill. But he said the votes didn't demonstrate the level of political leadership voters expect.
His rivals, Edwards said, "did not say anything about how they were going to vote ... they were among the last people to vote," Edwards said. "I think all of us have a responsibility to lead on these issues."
Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, voted in 2002 to authorize military action in Iraq and was a forceful defender of the war during his first presidential bid in 2004.
That led Obama, who as an Illinois state senator opposed the war before it started, to jab back at Edwards.
"You're about four and a half years late on leadership on this issue," Obama said.
Obama and Edwards also tangled over details of their respective health care plans, with Edwards arguing that Obama's proposal would not provide universal coverage. Obama said his plan focused primarily on bringing down costs and said that mandatory health coverage was meaningless if consumers couldn't afford to pay for it.
Clinton stood quietly between the two as they bickered, letting through an occasional bemused smile for the cameras.
Edwards had tough words for the former first lady, too, batting back her contention that the differences among the candidates were unimportant.
"There are differences between us, and I think Democratic voters deserve to know the differences between us," he said.
Clinton lobbed back at Edwards over his contention that the war on terror is little more than a "bumper sticker" slogan.
"I am a senator from New York. I have lived with the aftermath of 9/11, and I have seen firsthand the terrible damage that can be inflicted on our country by a small band of terrorists," she said.
With the so-called "top-tier" candidates - Clinton, Obama and Edwards - grabbing the most screen time during the debate, Sens. Chris Dodd and Joe Biden and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson did what they could to break through.
Richardson stressed his efforts to expand health insurance in his state and criticized the immigration bill moving through Congress, while Biden displayed his knowledge of global affairs as head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Dodd outlined his proposal for energy independence, which he has tried to make the signature issue of his presidential bid.
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